|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]郑峰,张明广,左亚雯.基于动态贝叶斯网络的化工装置区多米诺事故情景构建[J].南京工业大学学报(自然科学版),2019,41(05):554-560.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-7627.2019.05.004]
 ZHENG Feng,ZHANG Mingguang,ZUO Yawen.Study on domino accident in chemical plant area based on dynamic bayesian network[J].Journal of NANJING TECH UNIVERSITY(NATURAL SCIENCE EDITION),2019,41(05):554-560.[doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671-7627.2019.05.004]
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基于动态贝叶斯网络的化工装置区多米诺事故情景构建()
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《南京工业大学学报(自然科学版)》[ISSN:1671-7627/CN:32-1670/N]

卷:
41
期数:
2019年05期
页码:
554-560
栏目:
出版日期:
2019-10-22

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on domino accident in chemical plant area based on dynamic bayesian network
文章编号:
1671-7627(2019)05-0554-07
作者:
郑峰张明广左亚雯
南京工业大学 安全科学与工程学院 江苏省危险化学品本质安全与控制技术重点实验室,江苏 南京 211800
Author(s):
ZHENG FengZHANG MingguangZUO Yawen
Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Hazardous Chemicals Safety and Controls, College of Safety Science and Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211800, China
关键词:
石化装置区 多米诺事故 时间节点 动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)
Keywords:
petrochemical plant area domino accident time frame dynamic bayesian network(DBN)
分类号:
X932
DOI:
10.3969/j.issn.1671-7627.2019.05.004
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
化工装置区多为易燃易爆的有毒危险化学物质,一旦发生泄漏,进而会引发火灾爆炸事故,后果将不堪设想。以某化工企业储罐区池火灾为例,基于动态贝叶斯网络方法,根据储罐燃尽时间和失效时间划分事故过程时间节点,借助GeNIe分析软件,提出多米诺效应动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)分析模型的构建及学习方法。明确化工储罐区导致多米诺效应事故发生的关键环节,从而得出初始事故发生后各事故储罐关键时刻事故发生概率,为多米诺效应事故应急决策提供理论依据。
Abstract:
Most of the chemical plants tanks are inflammable, explosive and toxic. Once a leakage occurs, it will cause a fire and explosion accident, and the consequences will be unimaginable. Taking the fire in the storage tank area of a chemical enterprise as an example, based on the dynamic bayesian network with time and failure time to divide the time nodes of the accident process, the construction and learning method of the domino effect dynamic bayesian network analysis model was proposed and analyzed with GeNIe software, and the most critical link in the chemical storage tank area leading to the domino effect accident was clarified. The probability of accidents at key moment of each accident storage tank after the initial accident provided a sufficient theoretical basis for the development of the domino effect emergency plan.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2019-07-01
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0800100); 2016年度高校“青蓝工程”; 2017年“六大人才高峰”计划
作者简介:郑峰(1992—),男,E-mail:862229052@qq.com; 张明广(联系人),教授,E-mail:mingguang_zhang@njtech.edu.cn.
引用本文:郑峰,张明广,左亚雯.基于动态贝叶斯网络的化工装置区多米诺事故情景构建[J].南京工业大学学报(自然科学版),2019,41(5):554-560..
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-09-30